BUDGET EXECUTION TRENDS AND MACROECONOMIC PARAMETERS AFFECTING THE EXCHANGE RATE



H.E. Nodar Khaduri, Minister of Finance of Georgia held a special press-briefing on August 14, 2015 to speak about the budget execution trends and macroeconomic parameters affecting the exchange rate of the national currency.
According to the Minister of Finance, after updating the projected increase of the gross domestic product (GDP) budget has been adjusted to contain the deficit within 3%. International Monetary Fund (IMF) has welcomed this initiative. Besides, tax revenues are expected to exceed the projections.
• According to the actual data of the first 7 months of 2015, almost 1 billion GEL has been mobilized to the State Budget in excess of the projections in contrast with the same period of the previous year, while 580 million GEL has been utilized on top of the projected expenditures in contrast with the same period of 2014, thus reflecting an equal spending from the State Budget throughout the year;
• Budget execution indicators for 2015, similar to the projections for expenditures to the end of the year is characterized with an equal distribution of spending – different to the previous years;
• According to the projected State Budget for 2015, this year surplus will be accumulated at the budget deposit account – similar to 2014;
• Funds expected from donor agencies for Budget Support in 2015 exceeds the expenditures on external debt service and repayment by almost 50 million USD – different to the previous years, when external debt service expenses exceeded the revenues from foreign sources in the form of Budget Support;
• In the period of January through July 2015 over 81 million USD has been mobilized through Foreign Exchange Transactions of the Treasury to the State Budget Accounts on top of the projections, while 110 million USD will be accumulated in addition to the end of the year;

• In contrast with the previous year, current account deficit is reduced considerably and amounts 1419 million USD (actual reduction is 192 million USD);
• Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) are less compared to the record-high previous year, though are still high compared to 2012-2013. Projections for 2015 amounts 1186 million USD. It is significant that our projections are based on specific decisions planned ahead of time by companies;

In Q3 and Q4 inflow of foreign currency will be positive. Projected FDI exceeds the current account deficit. There will also be additional financial cash flow.


As noted at the press-briefing:
• Budget for 2015 stands out for the most well-distributed, equal spending;
• There is no macroeconomic basis for currency depreciation;
• Economy got fully adapted to external shocks;
• Budget policy has plaid a considerable role in the referred process of adaptation.

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